A succinct summary of a certain period in photos and insightful quotes (according to the author’s opinion) Individuals face a range of options each day. Some of them would result in actions, and some would be sacrificed, creating opportunity costs. Those actions also have outcomes and consequences that might change individuals’ paths. While people wouldContinue reading “The Messenger (Part 6)”
Author Archives: boneztelli
A Comment on Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter
In his article, Hamilton (2017) conveyed a critique of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, arguing against its utilization due to several inherent issues. He emphasizes that the filter’s sensitivity to the smoothing parameter selection, its tendency to generate misleading cycles, and its failure to accurately represent the actual underlying trend are significant drawbacks. While I partiallyContinue reading “A Comment on Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter”
Is It Worth the Waiting?
A discussion was running through my mind while I was waiting for the pick-up, thinking about a conversation with a friend lately. He mentioned being pragmatic in the context of marriage, meaning a marriage established not because of pure and true love, but rather due to other reasons, such as late age, matchmaking, etc. AContinue reading “Is It Worth the Waiting?”
Commentary on Monetary policy is Weaker in Recessions
In their article, Tenreyro and Thwaites (2013) conduct research to explore the impact of monetary policy on real and nominal variables at various business cycle stages. They aim to determine whether the effects of monetary policy are symmetrical or asymmetrical throughout the business cycle and identify the sources of any asymmetry observed. In my view,Continue reading “Commentary on Monetary policy is Weaker in Recessions”
Revisiting Inflation Forecasts Using the ARMA
The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) is a common technique in time series analysis. In my view, a time series example that can be suitable with the ARMA model but need to be revisited is inflation. The model commonly used in inflation data modeling might associate with the relatedness of the variable with its past values.Continue reading “Revisiting Inflation Forecasts Using the ARMA”
Commentary on Why are Target Interest Rate Changes so Persistent?
In their paper, Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2011) argue that in the absence of additional significant economic shocks, the monetary policy reversal is likely to be gradual and provide robust evidence that policy inertia is a more likely source of the persistence in interest rates than the persistent shocks hypothesis. The author mostly agrees with theirContinue reading “Commentary on Why are Target Interest Rate Changes so Persistent?”
A Comment on How Do We Know Climate Change is Real?
The earth has witnessed climate changes over time, but the current warming is occurring at an unprecedented pace compared to the last 10,000 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) asserts that since the 1970s when systematic scientific assessments commenced, the impact of human activity on climate warming has transformed from a theoretical conceptContinue reading “A Comment on How Do We Know Climate Change is Real?”
The Messenger (Part 5)
A succinct summary of a certain period in photos and insightful quotes (according to the author’s opinion) Starting again. Continuing the journey. Moving on, leaving the past behind. In practice, sometimes it is easier to say than to do. It requires at the very least a mix of courage, motivation, maturity, calmness, determination, moment, andContinue reading “The Messenger (Part 5)”
On The Potential Effect of Türkiye’s Decrease in Interest Rate on Its Macroeconomic Outcomes
As the government of Türkiye has decided to lower the interest rate (Pitel, 2022), one important question that arises would be: what is the impact of the decision on the Türkiye economy? To answer the possible effect on Türkiye’s economy, the IS-LM theory in international macroeconomics can be applied as an explanation as it isContinue reading “On The Potential Effect of Türkiye’s Decrease in Interest Rate on Its Macroeconomic Outcomes”
Revisiting the Relevance of International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination
Given the uncertainty in the current global economic situation, one question arises regarding whether international macroeconomic policy coordination is still relevant. The choice of whether to implement international macroeconomic policy coordination depends on the specific circumstances, as explained in previous literature on the topic. First, the success of cooperation and coordination principally requires the sharingContinue reading “Revisiting the Relevance of International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination”
hope. 