The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) is a common technique in time series analysis. In my view, a time series example that can be suitable with the ARMA model but need to be revisited is inflation. The model commonly used in inflation data modeling might associate with the relatedness of the variable with its past values.Continue reading “Revisiting Inflation Forecasts Using the ARMA”
Category Archives: Discussion
Commentary on Why are Target Interest Rate Changes so Persistent?
In their paper, Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2011) argue that in the absence of additional significant economic shocks, the monetary policy reversal is likely to be gradual and provide robust evidence that policy inertia is a more likely source of the persistence in interest rates than the persistent shocks hypothesis. The author mostly agrees with theirContinue reading “Commentary on Why are Target Interest Rate Changes so Persistent?”
A Comment on How Do We Know Climate Change is Real?
The earth has witnessed climate changes over time, but the current warming is occurring at an unprecedented pace compared to the last 10,000 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) asserts that since the 1970s when systematic scientific assessments commenced, the impact of human activity on climate warming has transformed from a theoretical conceptContinue reading “A Comment on How Do We Know Climate Change is Real?”
On The Potential Effect of Türkiye’s Decrease in Interest Rate on Its Macroeconomic Outcomes
As the government of Türkiye has decided to lower the interest rate (Pitel, 2022), one important question that arises would be: what is the impact of the decision on the Türkiye economy? To answer the possible effect on Türkiye’s economy, the IS-LM theory in international macroeconomics can be applied as an explanation as it isContinue reading “On The Potential Effect of Türkiye’s Decrease in Interest Rate on Its Macroeconomic Outcomes”
Revisiting the Relevance of International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination
Given the uncertainty in the current global economic situation, one question arises regarding whether international macroeconomic policy coordination is still relevant. The choice of whether to implement international macroeconomic policy coordination depends on the specific circumstances, as explained in previous literature on the topic. First, the success of cooperation and coordination principally requires the sharingContinue reading “Revisiting the Relevance of International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination”
On Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence
Based on the theory (Feenstra and Taylor, 2016), three key conditions faced by open economies: a fixed exchange rate that can enhance stability in trade and investment, free international capital mobility that can promote integration, efficiency, and risk-sharing, and monetary policy autonomy that can provide control over the economy’s business cycle. The trilemma suggests thatContinue reading “On Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence “
Commentary on Financial Globalization and Productivity Growth
Financial openness has been an important topic of discussion in the economics literature. One of the potential benefits of financial openness is its positive impact on productivity growth. The argument is that financial openness allows for greater access to capital, which can lead to increased investment, technological progress, and ultimately, higher productivity levels. In thisContinue reading “Commentary on Financial Globalization and Productivity Growth”
A Comment on Navigating the Debt Legacy of The Pandemic
In their article, Kose, Ohnsorge, and Sugawara (2021) proposed several measures that countries could take to address debt-related risks before the next crisis or pandemic. However, it is important to note that the suggestions might need more details. Hence, this post serves as a comment that would contribute to more detailed measures. The first suggestedContinue reading “A Comment on Navigating the Debt Legacy of The Pandemic”
This Too Shall Pass
Getting too much or too little of anything indicates a non-optimal state. It means that being in such a condition is not being at equilibrium since it is not in the appropriate portion and place. For instance, excessively feeling happy, such as euphoric could lead an individual to be off guard and ignore something thatContinue reading “This Too Shall Pass”
On Reminiscence and Nostalgia: Harnessing The Past
We cannot walk alone. And as we walk, we must make the pledge that we shall always march ahead. We cannot turn back. – Marthin Luther King, Jr. (1963) There are days when individuals look back to the past, recall certain events, and experience nostalgia. Aside from explicit reminders of the past e.g. visiting momentousContinue reading “On Reminiscence and Nostalgia: Harnessing The Past”
hope. 