An anomaly in economics occurs when an empirical outcome is challenging to justify, or when it requires unrealistic assumptions for its explanation using the underlying theories. In simpler terms, it pertains to a real-life scenario that contradicts or departs from the conventional theory. The anomalies discussed by Kahneman et al. (1991) are the endowment effectContinue reading “On Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias”
Category Archives: Discussion
The Less We Know, The Better?
Many theories, inventions, innovations, and technologies arise from human curiosity and the search for information and truth. However, while curiosity is part of human natural characteristics that might lead to information gathering, it might bring drawbacks if the collected information is not filtered. Information overload and the negative impact of social media are essential subtopicsContinue reading “The Less We Know, The Better?”
A Comment on Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter
In his article, Hamilton (2017) conveyed a critique of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, arguing against its utilization due to several inherent issues. He emphasizes that the filter’s sensitivity to the smoothing parameter selection, its tendency to generate misleading cycles, and its failure to accurately represent the actual underlying trend are significant drawbacks. While I partiallyContinue reading “A Comment on Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter”
Commentary on Monetary policy is Weaker in Recessions
In their article, Tenreyro and Thwaites (2013) conduct research to explore the impact of monetary policy on real and nominal variables at various business cycle stages. They aim to determine whether the effects of monetary policy are symmetrical or asymmetrical throughout the business cycle and identify the sources of any asymmetry observed. In my view,Continue reading “Commentary on Monetary policy is Weaker in Recessions”
Revisiting Inflation Forecasts Using the ARMA
The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) is a common technique in time series analysis. In my view, a time series example that can be suitable with the ARMA model but need to be revisited is inflation. The model commonly used in inflation data modeling might associate with the relatedness of the variable with its past values.Continue reading “Revisiting Inflation Forecasts Using the ARMA”
Commentary on Why are Target Interest Rate Changes so Persistent?
In their paper, Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2011) argue that in the absence of additional significant economic shocks, the monetary policy reversal is likely to be gradual and provide robust evidence that policy inertia is a more likely source of the persistence in interest rates than the persistent shocks hypothesis. The author mostly agrees with theirContinue reading “Commentary on Why are Target Interest Rate Changes so Persistent?”
A Comment on How Do We Know Climate Change is Real?
The earth has witnessed climate changes over time, but the current warming is occurring at an unprecedented pace compared to the last 10,000 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) asserts that since the 1970s when systematic scientific assessments commenced, the impact of human activity on climate warming has transformed from a theoretical conceptContinue reading “A Comment on How Do We Know Climate Change is Real?”
On The Potential Effect of Türkiye’s Decrease in Interest Rate on Its Macroeconomic Outcomes
As the government of Türkiye has decided to lower the interest rate (Pitel, 2022), one important question that arises would be: what is the impact of the decision on the Türkiye economy? To answer the possible effect on Türkiye’s economy, the IS-LM theory in international macroeconomics can be applied as an explanation as it isContinue reading “On The Potential Effect of Türkiye’s Decrease in Interest Rate on Its Macroeconomic Outcomes”
Revisiting the Relevance of International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination
Given the uncertainty in the current global economic situation, one question arises regarding whether international macroeconomic policy coordination is still relevant. The choice of whether to implement international macroeconomic policy coordination depends on the specific circumstances, as explained in previous literature on the topic. First, the success of cooperation and coordination principally requires the sharingContinue reading “Revisiting the Relevance of International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination”
On Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence
Based on the theory (Feenstra and Taylor, 2016), three key conditions faced by open economies: a fixed exchange rate that can enhance stability in trade and investment, free international capital mobility that can promote integration, efficiency, and risk-sharing, and monetary policy autonomy that can provide control over the economy’s business cycle. The trilemma suggests thatContinue reading “On Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence “
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