hope.

On Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence

Based on the theory (Feenstra and Taylor, 2016), three key conditions faced by open economies: a fixed exchange rate that can enhance stability in trade and investment, free international capital mobility that can promote integration, efficiency, and risk-sharing, and monetary policy autonomy that can provide control over the economy’s business cycle. The trilemma suggests that open economies can only achieve two out of three of these desirable policy goals simultaneously, leading to three scenarios: a fixed exchange rate and international capital mobility with no interest equality, international capital mobility and monetary policy autonomy with no fixed exchange rate (floating exchange rate), or a fixed exchange rate and monetary policy autonomy with no international capital mobility (capital control), resulting in differences between domestic and foreign returns. Essentially, it is impossible to have free capital mobility, fixed exchange rates, and independent monetary policy all at once, and only a floating exchange rate can enable monetary policy independence in the presence of free capital flows. The trilemma also assumes uncovered interest parity (UIP).

However, it is possible that a country may not fit completely into one of the three scenarios presented earlier, as the degree of fixed exchange rates, capital mobility, and monetary policy independence may be partial rather than absolute. Additionally, in practice, the global financial cycle can be influenced by a country’s monetary conditions and changes in risk aversion and uncertainty. Rey (2013) argues that the assumption of uncovered interest parity (UIP) may not always hold true. When capital is mobile, fluctuating exchange rates cannot protect economies from the global financial cycle. Thus, the trilemma becomes a dilemma, where independent monetary policies can only be possible if the capital account is managed, regardless of the exchange rate regime. In other words, capital control is necessary for monetary policy autonomy, making it a dilemma rather than a trilemma.

Rey (2015) has proposed various policy options to tackle the “dilemma” and the global financial cycle. One option is to use targeted capital controls. However, it is challenging to evaluate their effectiveness on financial stability and their side effects because they have only been implemented in specific low-income countries with unique characteristics. Temporary capital controls on credit flows and portfolio debt during a boom phase may be useful in preventing an excessive exchange rate appreciation, such as through the imposition of taxes on capital inflows. Capital controls may also be necessary when there is extensive cross-border lending, and the banking system can be circumvented. It is important to note that macro-prudential policies can also help reduce the link between domestic monetary policy and capital inflows, without the need for capital controls. For instance, by controlling excessive credit growth during boom times, the Central Bank can discourage banks from borrowing externally when domestic monetary policy tightens.

The second approach involves addressing the global spillovers resulting from the monetary policy of the dominant countries. These spillover effects are currently not being internalized, so the central banks of the major economies should consider the collective impact of their policies on the rest of the world. One practical method, as suggested by Eichengreen et al. (2011), would be to create a small group of systemically significant central banks that meet regularly under the auspices of the Committee on the Global Financial System of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). This group would evaluate and discuss the effects of their policies on global liquidity, leverage, and exposures, as well as the appropriateness of their joint money and credit policies concerning global price, output, and financial stability. However, implementing this policy option presents difficulties, as international cooperation on monetary spillovers may conflict with the domestic mandates of central banks.

The third option to deal with the challenges posed by the dilemma and the global financial cycle is to prevent excessive credit growth. Macro-prudential tools, such as countercyclical capital cushions, loan-to-value ratios, and debt-to-income ratios, can be used to limit excessive credit growth. It is also necessary to monitor lending standards and trading strategies during high credit growth periods. However, the timing of the intervention needs to be determined carefully. Automatic rules based on the credit-to-GDP ratio can be used to determine the timing of intervention, which is more robust to lobbying from interested parties and overcomes the bias towards inaction during good times. Stress testing the balance sheet of the financial sector is another option. However, stress testing is a challenging exercise, and estimating second-round effects is particularly difficult. This option is also unpopular with market participants and requires careful communication policy and fiscal backstop strategies to guarantee the credibility of the stress testing.

The fourth option involves limiting the ability of financial intermediaries to amplify the effects of global financial conditions through stricter regulations on their leverage. This would structurally reduce their capacity to be excessively pro-cyclical. Implementing tougher leverage ratios is a reasonable approach to reduce the significant costs of errors of judgment without burdening costs on the real economy (Haldane, 2012).

Given that excessive leverage and credit growth are the main problems, a combination of macroprudential policies based on rigorous stress testing and stricter leverage ratios is necessary. Depending on the source of financial instability and institutional context, capital controls could be considered a partial alternative to macroprudential measures. In general, the policy choice may also depend on domestic mandates and economic conditions. For instance, Indonesia has implemented automatic rules based on the credit-to-GDP ratio, intervening when the threshold of 60% is exceeded. While each option has its benefits and drawbacks, the choice of policy will depend on country-specific factors.

References
Eichengreen, B. et al. (2011). Rethinking Central Banking, Committee on International Economic Policy and Reform, Brookings Institution.

Feenstra, R.C., and Taylor, A. M. (2016). International Macroeconomics (4th ed.). Worth Publishers

Haldane, A. (2012). The Dog and the Frisbee, given at the Jackson Hole 36th economic policy symposium.

Rey, H. (2013). Capital flows: assessing the costs, hunting for the gains, presented at the IMF research conference on Rethinking macroeconomic policy, Washington DC.

Rey, H. (2015). Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence. NBER Working Paper 21162

Commentary on Financial Globalization and Productivity Growth

Financial openness has been an important topic of discussion in the economics literature. One of the potential benefits of financial openness is its positive impact on productivity growth. The argument is that financial openness allows for greater access to capital, which can lead to increased investment, technological progress, and ultimately, higher productivity levels.

In this context, this post attempts to put a perspective on the arguments made by Prasad, Terrones, and Kose (2009) regarding the positive impact of financial openness on productivity growth, while also highlighting some additional considerations that should be taken into account when evaluating this relationship. Furthermore, this post also discusses the implications of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit) and its relation with the COVID-19 pandemic that happened in an adjacent period.

While I partially agree with Prasad, Terrones, and Kose (2009) regarding the positive impact of financial openness on productivity growth, I believe their arguments need further consideration. Specifically, at least four important points were not fully explored in their analysis and should be taken into account when evaluating their arguments.

The first point is that the effects of financial openness on productivity growth may differ across countries. Although theoretically, investments such as foreign direct investment (FDI) should continue until rates of return are equal, low-income and high-income countries have different levels of productivity. Therefore, the magnitude of financial openness’s impact on productivity growth may vary across countries. For instance, empirical evidence shows that productivity, particularly in terms of marginal product of capital, may not be much higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries.

The second point is that the authors did not consider social efficiency in their analysis. Social efficiency, which includes institutions, public policies, and cultural differences, is theoretically one of the main factors affecting financial integration (FDI) inflows. Empirical evidence shows that capital tends to flow to countries with better institutions. Therefore, social efficiency might contribute to explaining how financial openness bolsters productivity and the linkage between the two.

The third point concerns the importance of the risk premium in the analysis of financial openness. The risk premium can be a substantial cause of capital flow, particularly in emerging markets, as it compensates for the risks of investing in these markets. The fact that the analysis finds that financial integration does not seem to matter for productivity growth may also be related to the risk premium that is not captured in the analysis and contributes to the insignificant result of the relationship between the two variables. This means that financial openness alone does not guarantee capital inflows, which may in turn have no significant effect on productivity growth.

The fourth point is that the share of capital in production varies across countries. In many developing countries, the share of capital may be lower, which may affect the degree to which financial openness promotes productivity growth. In addition, the relative price of investment (the price of capital goods) may vary across countries, even if financial openness exists, which makes investment levels differ, and in turn, contributes to the level of productivity growth. Thus, adjustments to the analysis at the country level may be necessary to make the results more comparable, for instance, by categorizing countries based on a certain level of share of capital in production.

The UK and The Global Economy After Brexit

Moving forward to a recent column in the context of financial openness, I agree with Posen (2022) to the extent that several indicators have shown a decreasing trend in the UK since the Brexit vote, including international trade, trade openness, immigrant population, and inward FDI flows. This trend is concerning, as it might indicate that the UK is moving towards a closed economy, which can have multiple harmful effects, such as hindering innovation and hampering productivity growth.

Empirically, part of the reasons for the declining trend in UK trade and investment in particular could be the deep integration level of the European Union (EU) that provides the benefit to trade and investment from being a member. For example, prior to Brexit, the UK benefited from reduced trade costs and trade liberalization, which can improve allocative and productive efficiency in the short run (Crafts, 2016). This might be because the EU has achieved a deeper level of economic integration and there is no close substitute (Baier et al., 2008). For FDI, there is evidence that EU membership has a strong positive effect on FDI because of market access (Slaughter, 2003). Hence, it is reasonable that the UK’s withdrawal from the EU affected the country’s trade and investment.

On the other hand, there is an indication that the UK is moving towards an autarky or a closed economy. Theoretically, the implication for the economy if the UK continues to become more closed cannot be underestimated, as it may face difficulties in obtaining the gain from consumption smoothing. This means that a trade-off could occur in the economy if the UK wants to make more investments by reducing consumption to compensate for the increase in investment.

However, it should be noted that the evidence presented should be interpreted with caution, and further analysis may be required to make a more accurate conclusion, as correlation does not necessarily mean causality. This means other factors could also influence the decline in selected indicators, such as the 2020 pandemic. In my point of view, the pandemic in 2020 might have exacerbated the effect of Brexit; hence, the impact of Brexit, if there had been no pandemic, might not have been as large as if there had been a pandemic. While the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit are two separate events that have had significant economic impacts on the UK, their combined effects may exacerbate the negative economic impacts on the country.

There are several potential arguments for this hypothesis. First, the global pandemic of 2020 has had an adverse effect on numerous economies worldwide. Empirical studies indicate that the COVID-19 outbreak has had a severely negative impact on cross-border activities, including trade, investment, and the movement of people (Hayakawa et al., 2022; Moosa and Merza, 2022). It is reasonable to assume that lockdowns, travel restrictions, and other measures implemented by governments to curb the spread of the virus have led to a decrease in trade flows and a slowdown in economic activity.

Second, the pandemic could exacerbate the negative economic effects of Brexit by causing significant disruptions in global supply chains and international trade. For example, a report published in 2021 suggested that Brexit has resulted in changes to migration and trade regimes, which have further aggravated the supply bottlenecks caused by the pandemic (Office for Budget Responsibility, 2021).

Third, the COVID-19 outbreak may magnify the impact of Brexit by exposing different sectors of the economy compared with those exposed to Brexit alone. This implies that in most cases, the regions and sectors most affected by the economic impact of COVID-19 are distinct from those likely to be most affected by Brexit, as reported by the Trade Union Congress (2020). For example, the manufacturing of automotive, transport equipment, chemicals and chemical products, and textiles, as well as services such as finance and communications, are among the sectors most exposed to Brexit. On the other hand, the hospitality, tourism, transport, arts, and entertainment sectors are among those most exposed to the economic impact of COVID-19. The automotive industry is one of the sectors that has experienced a decline due to the pandemic and is likely to be significantly impacted by Brexit. Thus, the combined effect of both crises would have a more extensive impact on the UK than either would have had independently.

In conclusion, while financial openness can have a positive impact on productivity growth, the analysis presented by Prasad, Terrones, and Kose (2009) needs to be considered with caution. There are several factors to take into account, including differences in productivity levels between countries, the importance of social efficiency, the risk premium, and the share of capital in production. Similarly, the decline in UK trade and investment since Brexit may be partially attributed to the deep integration of the European Union, but further analysis is required to determine causality. The COVID-19 pandemic may have also exacerbated the negative economic effects of Brexit by causing significant disruptions in global supply chains and international trade. Therefore, it is important to conduct further research to understand the complex interplay between these factors and their impact on the economy.

References
Baier, S. L., Bergstrand, J., Egger, P., & McLaughlin, P. (2008). Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism. The World Economy, 31, 461-497.

Crafts, N. (2016). The Growth Effects of EU Membership for the UK: Review of the evidence. Global Perspectives Series: Paper 7, 1-26.

Hayakawa, K., Lee, H., & Park, C. (2022). The Effect of Covid-19 on Foreign Direct Investment. ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 653

Moosa, I. A., & Merza, E. (2022). The effect of COVID-19 on foreign direct investment inflows: stylised facts and some explanations. Future Business Journal, 8(1), 20.

Posen, A. (2022, April 27). The UK and the global economy after Brexit. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/uk-and-global-economy-after-brexit

Prasad, E., Terrones, M. and Kose, M. (2009, January 5). Financial globalisation and productivity growth. VoxEU. http://voxeu.org/article/financial-globalisation-and-productivity-growthLinks to an external site.

Slaughter, M. (2003). Host Country Determinants of US Foreign Direct Investment into Europe in H. Hermann and R. Lipsey (eds.), Foreign Direct Investment in the Real and Financial Sector of Industrial Countries. Berlin: Springer, 7-32.

A Comment on Navigating the Debt Legacy of The Pandemic

In their article, Kose, Ohnsorge, and Sugawara (2021) proposed several measures that countries could take to address debt-related risks before the next crisis or pandemic. However, it is important to note that the suggestions might need more details. Hence, this post serves as a comment that would contribute to more detailed measures.

The first suggested measure is for emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) to have better spending and revenue policies in an improved institutional environment. This includes increasing spending on education, health improvement, and climate-smart investments, broadening government revenue bases by removing exemptions, strengthening tax administrations, and supporting private sector growth.

However, these policies may not apply universally to all EMDEs as they may depend on the economy’s structure, particularly in terms of government spending and economic complexity. For instance, countries like Honduras, Kazakhstan, and Nicaragua already allocated more than 20 percent of their government expenditure to education in 2021. Rather than increasing education spending, it might be more beneficial to improve the quality of education and health spending for these countries, such as by enhancing monitoring mechanisms and access equality.

From the revenue side, according to The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), 87 developing countries in the world heavily rely on commodity exports, making their revenue highly susceptible to global market price volatility. Therefore, promoting private sector growth to boost productivity gains might be ineffective in commodity-dependent countries that lack economic diversification. These EMDEs, which are typically commodity-dependent, may need to take additional measures to diversify their economy to lessen reliance on specific sectors that might be vulnerable to global financial shocks.

The second recommended way is to promote an open and rules-based environment for trade and investment, which has been a major driver of economic growth for many countries in the past. Nevertheless, to be effective, this approach needs to be more specific in terms of its focus on the business environment. For instance, in countries like Indonesia, which have a proportion of almost 99% of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) of the business units in the country according to the Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs. Such businesses should be supported and taken into account when designing policies to promote trade and investment. This is because SMEs are a vital source of employment and economic growth in such countries.

The third suggested measure is to provide additional support, including debt relief, to some EMDEs and low-income countries to return their debt to manageable levels. Nonetheless, this policy requires careful consideration of the extent of debt relief and the need to ensure that it is effectively targeted. In addition to those actions, an important step that can be taken is to ensure debt transparency, which involves assessing all types of debt and creditors to gain a better understanding of the debt that poses a risk to a nation’s public finances.

In conclusion, Kose, Ohnsorge, and Sugawara (2021) proposed a number of measures that could help address debt-related risks before the next crisis or pandemic. However, it is important to note that these suggestions may need more detailed consideration, as policies may not apply universally to all countries and may depend on their specific economic structures. It is therefore essential to take a nuanced approach to these measures, taking into account the unique circumstances of each country. In addition, it is crucial to ensure debt transparency and carefully consider the extent of debt relief needed to effectively target support to countries in need.

References
Kose, M., Ohnsorge, F., and Sugawara, N. (2021). Navigating the debt legacy of the pandemic. Retrieved 19 February 2023 from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/10/20/navigating-the-debt-legacy-of-the-pandemic/

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2021). State of Commodity Dependence. United Nations Publications: Geneva.

Ode about A Search

Dear Someone in my past,

Why are you still here?
I thought I had let you go.
It seems that apparently, I do not want to just yet.

Could you tell me the reasons?
I thought I saw you in my dream.
It seems that apparently, you have always been there.

Do we have an accord?
I thought we had settled it in.
It seems that apparently, I have stuck on the puzzle.

How long would you be here?
I thought I have held you on.
It seems that apparently, I should not hold you back.

I have not spent a day without thinking about you.

Thank You, 2022

This post serves as a summary and key takeaways from the author’s point of view based on reflections and contemplations over the year 2022. There are at least three lessons learned from what the author has been personally through this year.

The first lesson is that being in a whole new place and getting exposed to many new people and cultures might tempt an individual and reveal an individual’s true character. Moving into an entirely new environment may force someone to be more aware and cautious of his/her surroundings and well-being. It might motivate them to conduct necessary things in order to survive. Moreover, getting exposed to new people and society with different cultures and backgrounds may lead an individual to be more ‘judgemental’ in terms of selecting his/her peer group and having more sense of others’ influence on him/her. These things could be considered as a natural tendency of someone as part of surviving in a new environment.

Second, for workers, getting a sabbatical leave might bring more benefits. A sabbatical leave may provide time for deep consideration of a particular topic and/or re-examine a worker’s career options (Bass et al., 2020). Additionally, according to Davidson et al. (2010), individuals who reported higher self-efficacy for taking a break, felt more in control, were able to emotionally distance themselves, had a more positive overall experience, and traveled abroad during their sabbatical had higher levels of well-being compared to others. Furthermore, for students, having a short respite might prevent them from being fixated and getting stuck in a certain situation, for example, when working on a problem set. Meanwhile, for people in general, taking a short break from a routine might bring advantages in terms of well-being and a clear mind.

Third, individuals may not know the limit to which their potential could take them, and thus it is noteworthy to give shots on essential things, and of their interests for whatever one sows, that will he also reap. Given some resources and opportunities, it is worth it to utilize those and see what would be the outcome. In other words, speculating on certain things to some degree might bring information about the edge of the course individuals could do with their potential.

To conclude, it is imperative to take some time to have a break, contemplate and rethink things that had happened and options to take ahead. Going out of routine and comfort zone may supply individuals with relatively new perspectives toward their affairs and bring gains that may further lead to better well-being, while giving shots to opportunities with some resources may optimize individuals’ potential. Thank you for the lessons, 2022.

References
Bass, E. J., Caldwell, B. S., Cao, C. G. L., Lee, J. D., & Miller, C. (2020). Planning the sabbatical: Potential benefits, options, and strategies. Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, 64(1), 582–586.

Davidson, O. B., Eden, D., Westman, M., Cohen-Charash, Y., Hammer, L. B., Kluger, A. N., Spector, P. E. (2010). Sabbatical leave: Who gains and how much? Journal of Applied Psychology, 95(5), 953–964.

This Too Shall Pass

Georgetown Waterfront Park, Washington D.C.

Getting too much or too little of anything indicates a non-optimal state. It means that being in such a condition is not being at equilibrium since it is not in the appropriate portion and place. For instance, excessively feeling happy, such as euphoric could lead an individual to be off guard and ignore something that should have been anticipated. Vice versa, extremely feeling sad, such as mournful could unambiguously have destructive impacts on the individual. Therefore, being aware of the impermanent nature of states and things in the world could make individuals behave wisely and contribute to optimizing their actions to improve their life by making wise decisions.

The proverb this too shall pass came into being when a king requested a ring that would make him happy when he was sad and vice versa, caution him when he was joyful, and received one engraved with the line (Keyes, 2007). From the psychological perspective, this proverb introduces the question of whether temporal distancing from positive events lowers positive impact through the same mechanism that distancing from negative events lowers negative impact by underlining their impermanence. At first, it looks reasonable that focusing on the impermanence of joyful experiences could diminish their enjoyment.

Bruehlman-Senecal and Ozlem Ayduk (2015) suggest, nevertheless, that it is also possible that the awareness that positive experiences are fleeting might encourage individuals to more fully appreciate and cherish these experiences while they last. Thus, the proverb this too shall pass provides more than cold comfort to individuals who strive with personal struggles. This is supported by the study of Bruehlman-Senecal and Ozlem Ayduk (2015) that suggested so and highlighted temporal distancing as a pivotal strategy for increasing individuals’ awareness that their reactions to stressful events tend to be temporary.

This too shall pass could also be associated with optimizing decisions from the perspective of economics. As representative agents in the economy strive to maximize their interests, such as profit for businesses and utilities for consumers, they are simultaneously subject to certain constraints, including budget and time constraints. Adopting a popular topic of optimality in economics would be beneficial and doable for individuals to optimize their life even though the application in real life might be more abstract and conceptual.

Optimizing individuals’ life might be specified by narrowing down to the micro aspects of their daily life, which are the course of behaviors and decisions since the accumulation of the actions and decisions that they make during the lifetime period might affect their satisfaction (utilities). This means that to optimize their actions and decisions, individuals need to find and determine their objectives. After discovering their life objectives which are unique for each person, individuals need to specify their constraints in any terms, such as financial, time, skills, etc. Knowing the objectives and being aware of the constraints might then make individuals wise in making decisions and taking further steps, which in turn would eventually allow them to effectively pursue their objectives and efficiently take necessary actions and utilize resources during their lifetime period.

It is imperative to note that as rational beings, individuals might want to maximize their lives to the fullest in any aspect. This requires them to act optimally and decide wisely during their lifetime period given some resources and constraints. To enable individuals to take actions and decisions optimally, they need at least two important things. First is knowing the temporary nature of their conditions or experiences or in other words, recognizing their time constraints. The second is to set objectives that are generally unique for each individual. This too shall pass could be applied in real life as cautious for individuals to live their lives optimally.

References
Bruehlman-Senecal, E., & Ayduk, O. (2015). This too shall pass: Temporal distance and the regulation of emotional distress. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 108(2), 356–375.

Keyes, R. (2007). The quote verifier: Who said what, where, and when. New York, NY: Macmillan.

The Messenger (Part 4)

A succinct summary of a week in photos and insightful quotes (according to the author’s opinion)

For a unitary time endowment of an individual, it might be beneficial to allocate some time to observe what has been happening and draw life lessons. After several contemplations, one thing remains, during the time of joyful and melancholic, those moments shall pass anyway. A good reminder to prevent individuals from getting euphoria and misery: this, too, shall pass.

“The function of man is to live, not to exist. I shall not waste my days trying to prolong them. I shall use my time.” – Jack London

Wisdom allows man to act in a proper and suitable way. That is, to live in a balance of multiple aspects – not too much, yet, not too little.

A shift, a change, and a transition might be struggling.
Adjusting, adapting, and starting a new habit might be hard.
Moving into a whole new environment might not be easy.
Taking a leap to the unknown and uncertainty might not be comforting.
But those are not only necessary but also sufficient conditions in order to live instead of merely exist.

I might not know what would happen. I might not know if something conceals a meaning.
Nevertheless, I know that I am on the right track.
Why? Because I believe so.

“You are such a fool
To worry like you do
…
If the night runs over
And if, the day won’t last
And if your way should falter
Along these stony paths
It’s just a moment
This time will pass“

Stuck in a Moment (You Can’t Get Out Of) – U2

Things I Learned

Things I learned from my Lecturer

We must be balanced in terms of being idealistic (doing things for our passion) and realistic (doing things for our welfare).

Maximize the opportunity when it is given to us by doing every necessary thing fervently.

Things I learned from my Supervisor

Give all of our effort to what we would do – should we find hesitation before doing something, it might be better not to embark on it at all.

Things I learned from my First Echelon

For some things in our life, it might be better to take some time before making a decision. It is not that we do nothing, but instead, it allows us to obtain wise consideration, as well as be aware and adaptive to the progress of a situation.

Transparency is not the same as nudity. Indeed, we need to be credible, transparent and have integrity in every situation. Nevertheless, in some cases and due to some reasons, we might be transparent and credible while at the same time not providing information overly.

Journal of Contemplations (Part III)

In order to accomplish our goals, sometimes we need to face the prerequisite that might be challenging and makes us feel as if we want to skip it, yet it is inevitable.

Thus, it should be faced and we have to embrace the process as if we go through a tunnel to reach the other side of the road which holds our goals.

Revelations, clues, and solutions we search for with our efforts might instead come from exogenous factors – factors that are unexpectedly out of our control. It may be a matter of timing until the ‘eureka’ moment greets us.

Don’t give in and lose our faith and hope easily since we don’t know how close we are to the answer. Yearn for it like a watchman does for the morning.

A strong will triggers us to a start

A strong reason endures us to a finish.

Be aware and careful of who we surround ourselves with.

External social environment and network effect are just as important as internal motivation in enabling individuals to live with better well-being.

We need not know our calling in life instantly. And it does not need to be as massive as changing the world.

We need to find that thing we fight for, that disequilibrium we couldn’t live with, that forces that move us, or that emotion that overwhelms us and pursue it.

Take Your Time

Have we changed? Has the fire been extinguished and the warmth vanished?
Or is it just time that reveals the truth. The truth of the nature of our relationship. The truth of who we really are, and what we want.

Do this relationship that you really want? Is it just a phase of challenge that you need to endure and pass-through?
Or, do those signs are actually giving clues that you need to respond with some turns in the path.

As time goes by, pieces of information are gathered along the way.
Can you not still conclude the answer? How much evidence that you need to complete the puzzle and have your words?

If you are still processing everything, the best advice is to take your time.